# 'Hands-On' no screen tasks + Covid data?

Online learning going well - eyes getting tired, headaches maybe more frequent . . . starting to think about "balanced diet" between online tasks and practical '**making tasks**' or at least, **pen & paper (NO computer) **work for mathematics and some **asynchronous **elements (I mark previous class's work during 6th to 25th minute of next class):

- First
**5mins**I explain task and remind where the necessary resources are. **20mins**of lesson students work on a pre-defined task (posted in Managebac, Google Classrooms/Docs etc. i.e. online!). I get on and mark/review work set to class that just left.**5mins**After 20mins, students 'share' their work. A number of ways of doing this: a photo of their paper working out, working out in Onenote classroom, all students show their work using the 'video' teams/hangout etc functionality.**5-10mins**: I go over, live (Teams, Hangouts, Zoom etc.) any common questions/any common misunderstandings.- Next
**20mins**- I set the task (take**5mins to explain task).**students work, I look through their work from previous 20mins. **Last 5mins**- students upload pictures etc. of their work which I will look through & prepare feedback for them in next lesson, using 20minutes of my**next**lesson (whilst the**next**class works on their**practicaly/making**activity).

This activity: Prism Volumes for example could extend over 1 or 2 lessons. From experience I recommend **sand **or **sugar **or **rice** etc. rather than water!!

### 'Quarantine' - for how long?

### Using Data to explore: "Quarantine everyone - or just the "at risk" people and over 60s (over 50s(?))?"

I trust the consensus of our world healthcare experts, and our politicians. Between them, if they say quarantining whole country's is the best policy, then I accept that. What this leads me to ask is - **how long for? **

I've found it hard/very hard to get data on:

**Age distribution**of those**in a CRITICAL**(requiring hospitalisation certainly, ventilation machines(?) - the definitions of 'critical' are not always clear, or the same, between sources)**Comparable data**on**age distribution**of**number of cases**(statista.com is only source I've found so far, but the age countries used from one country to next are not identical, this article comparing Italy and Korea is interesting: A Tale of Two Death Rates: Italy and Korea (I've not followed up their data sources to check . . )).- My Father-in-law, Gilles, just sent me (Fri 20th March)
**this excellent report from Imperial College that contains AGE DISTRIBUTION DATA**

Much of what we're hearing seems to suggest that Covid-19 is **particularly dangerous** for the **over 60s** and **those with underlying health conditions.** This lead me to wonder if, after 15 days / 30 days / x days (?) a feasible alternative could be to safeguard and protect our over 60s and those with underlying health conditions with a quarantine, but, to reduce the economic consequences and resulting political/social issues this may cause (which will be very hard to calculate and pinpoint) allow **under 60s **(under 50s ? The cut-off would need to be data-drive) to return to 'normal' life, but with the added precautions of hand-washing, everyone knowing the symptoms of Covid-19 and keeping 2m between ourselves, as much as possible.

**Is there any evidence to support this course of action? **

I found this article (author's credentials as a Standford Professor of medicine follow) interesting, and measured.

*John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center*

*. . *and looked up **age distribution graphs** by:

**number of cases****death rate****'Severe'**(I didn't manage to find this information, so used the below "% of deaths per total cases" age distribution data as a guideline for the**proportion**of the total number of "severe" conditions accounted for by each age group)

Given as I was unable to drag myself away for researching this data, and that it was a question that, I felt, only mathematics could really answer, I put together some graphs ready to investigate this question with my 14-16 year old classes later this week.

I think I would start just by giving them the below graphs and above article (which is long and uses very adult reasoning and language - so for many I'll just ask them to higlight, in a quick, scan-read, any key points that stand out) and ask them:

*Q1) How would you use the below graphs to make a case, for or against, a quarantine only for people with a"health condition or over 60 (or 50?)" *

*after 15 days, 30 days general population quarantine?**AGE DISTRIBUTION of those infected with COVID-19 (South Korea)*

Source: www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coronavirus-cases-by-age/

*DISTRIBUTION of total covid-19 cases that were/are: 'mild', 'severe' and 'critical' COVID-19 (China)*

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

*Q2) What assumptions have we needed to make to be able to use these graphs all together? *

**Q2 (b) ** Using the above graphs figures, I came up with a very rough estimates (data, assumptions etc. etc.):

under 50s chance of dieing from Covid-19:

\(\approx\)** 0.350% \(\approx\) 7 in 2000 \(\approx\) 1 in 286 **

and a probability of being admitted to hospital for assistance overcoming the effects/to be able to recover from Covid-19 as:

**\(\approx\)1.31% \(\approx\)1 in 76 **

**(i) What do you get? Show all your working out**

**Based on these figures, would you recommend such a policy? **